• Santander’s Autumn 2025 Trade Barometer1 reveals over half (54%) of businesses with supply chain dependencies in China are actively moving away or planning to diversify, as risks increase.
• 67% of businesses are considering moving supply chains back to the UK or the EU.
• Emerging markets are also in the spotlight, with interest in Southeast Asia almost doubling to 14% since Spring 2025.
• The United States continues to lead as the most attractive export destination for UK businesses over the next 12 months, with more than a third (35%) identifying it as a key market.
• Despite the trend for returning supply chains to the UK, the Trade Barometer reveals record interest among UK businesses in international expansion, driven by domestic growth concern.
Santander’s Autumn 2025 Trade Barometer, published today, shows a shift to ‘nearshoring’, with 55% of UK businesses taking steps to bring supply chains closer to home – up from 50% from last year. One in five (20%) businesses have already relocated their supply chains nearer to the UK and two thirds (67%) of businesses are considering moving supply chains back to the UK or the EU (54%).
According to Santander’s historical data, around 40% of UK businesses have relied on China for part of their supply chain since 2023. Today, more than half (54%) of these firms are now seeking to relocate operations away from China or have plans to diversify their supply chains to reduce dependency – signalling a decisive shift in strategic priorities.
Meanwhile, China’s neighbouring markets are gaining momentum. Interest in Southeast Asia has nearly doubled since Spring 2025, surpassing South Asia (12%) and Central Asia (9%). This suggests a steady regional rebalancing driven by competitive labour and manufacturing costs in economies such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia.
Diversification amid weak domestic growth
Notwithstanding the trend away from supply chains in China, UK businesses are increasingly looking overseas for growth, with nearly half (47%) now considering international expansion – up by a third from 33% in Spring 2025 and more than double the number in Autumn 2023 (21%).
This growing appetite for global diversification comes amid weak domestic growth and growing concerns over UK tax increases. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) recently noted that trade’s contribution to UK GDP has stagnated due to “persistent underperformance”, underscoring the need for businesses to seek growth opportunities abroad.
Jane Galvin, Head of Corporate Clients at Santander UK, said: “Ambitious UK businesses are determined to grow, but they face a challenging mix of geopolitical instability and weak domestic growth. As some move supply chains away from markets such as China and closer to home, others are exploring new emerging markets in countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia.
“Despite global trade challenges and rising costs, recent trade agreements have boosted confidence, and our Barometer shows record interest in international expansion. It is vital that UK businesses get the support they need to navigate the challenges and opportunities of the current environment. Domestic growth concerns make international growth particularly attractive, and with strong government policies and support to grow overseas, these firms can thrive and promote economic growth.
“At Santander, we’re committed to helping businesses expand into new markets through our sector and country expertise, partnership with trade bodies and our new Navigator Global platform.”
Looking beyond borders
The United States continues to lead as the most attractive export destination for UK businesses over the next 12 months, with more than a third (35%) identifying it as a key market – up from 30% since Spring 2025. Germany maintains its strong position as second, while France has climbed to third place (19%, up from 15%). These trends reflect a sustained optimism toward US and EU markets, bolstered by recent trade agreements and tariff negotiations that appear to have improved trading conditions and shaped expectations.
However, unease around tariffs has not gone away. Tariff volatility is emerging as a longstanding and structural concern for growth, with three in five UK businesses (62%) believing rising global tariff risks threaten their growth prospects, a figure broadly unchanged from Spring (63%), regardless of the US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal being reached. Among firms planning international expansion, this concern intensifies dramatically, surging to 80%.
Businesses are prioritising commercial opportunity over geopolitical alignment, with India remaining a strategic focus for future export markets – cited by 14% of UK businesses, double the figure from Autumn 2024. Notably 42% of UK businesses view the new UK-India trade deal as a positive step in enhancing their ability to trade.
China continues to offer long-term growth potential for businesses, ranking seventh among the top ten destinations future export markets, despite not ranking in the top current export markets. In the previous wave of research in the Spring, China re-entered the top 10 current export for the first time in three years.
However, international expansion presents new challenges. Nearly half of UK businesses cite political instability (48%) and navigating new regulatory regimes (47%) as the top barriers – reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and strained US-China relations. These concerns now outweigh traditional hurdles such as high transport costs (45%) and labour shortages (43%). Many businesses also highlight limited domestic government support (43%) and a lack of reliable market intelligence (41%) as further impediments to global growth.
Minister for Trade Policy Chris Bryant, added: "We are unblocking trade barriers, so UK businesses seize the opportunities our trade deals create. From India to the US, we're pursuing an ambitious trade agenda that reflects where businesses see real potential for growth.
“Our Trade, Industrial and Small Business Strategies work hand in hand to ensure businesses across every region have the skills, infrastructure, and support they need to compete on the world stage."
“We want every business, whether they employ ten people or 5000, to be able to exploit the international opportunities these trade deals represent. Let’s all raise our ambitions.”
Santander has recently launched Navigator Global, an end-to-end digital platform that helps ambitious businesses grow internationally.
John Carroll, CEO of Navigator Global, said: “With UK businesses increasingly looking overseas for growth, it has never been more important for the right tools and guidance to be available for them. Navigator Global is a growth accelerator for your business. We are a club, with benefits, that guides ambitious businesses through the international trade journey and offers end-to-end solutions.
"Navigator Global connects companies to proprietary insight and verified providers which help to give them clarity on where to go, who to trust and how to grow with confidence."
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Notes to Editors
1. The Santander Trade Barometer research is carried out bi-annually in spring and autumn. The Autumn 2025 Fieldwork was carried out between 22nd September– 6th November 2025 by YouGov. Total sample size of 1,007 UK businesses with minimum £1m annual turnover.
2. Navigator Global is Santander’s recently launched end-to-end digital platform that helps ambitious businesses grow internationally. It connects users to verified providers, local experts and real-time insight in the markets they want to target, giving them the confidence to move faster and reducing the challenges often associated with global trade, such as finding overseas partners and meeting complex regulatory requirements.
3. Case studies available for interview.
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